United StatesThe fast-growing US senior housing market enjoys strong demographic tailwinds from an ageing, asset-rich generation of retirees. A shortage of purpose-built property supports demand for market incumbents who can offer best-in-class services to prospective residents.
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020: Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060. Forecast data from 2025.
Subhead: US population aged 80 and over (mn)
Overview: This bar chart shows the number of Americans aged 80 or over by year from 2010 to 2030. The data from 2025 onward is forecast.
Overall, this chart shows how growth in the size of the US population aged 80 and over has accelerated, and is forecast to continue expanding rapidly for the rest of this decade.
The rising need for senior housing
Declining health in old age, combined with limited family support, underpin demand for professional senior housing solutions that can meet complex medical needs and improve quality of life.
Elderly people typically move into dedicated senior housing – which include senior apartments, independent living, assisted living and memory care – for one or more of the following reasons.
First, when chronic physical health and mobility issues prevent them from living independently and can require medical management. Roughly two-fifths (42%) of over-65s in the US are obese – up from 30% in 2000.1 Related health issues include hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes, the latter of which now affects 29% of over-65s in the US.2
Second, when cognitive decline leads to memory loss, confusion and difficulty performing daily tasks, making it unsafe to live independently. Nearly 7mn Americans now live with Alzheimers.3 Specialist memory care facilities and nurses can provide tailored support.
Third, when relatives are unable to provide care. A ‘sandwich generation’ of dual-income households with children of their own is increasingly unable to provide the support older relatives need. More than one-third of caregivers for adults report workplace burnout.4
Fourth, out of choice. More than one-third of older US adults feel lonely, according to a recent study, often exacerbated by medical issues like hearing loss and by bereavement.5 Supported housing can provide social interaction, enabling people to live more independent and, on average, longer lives as part of a safe community.6
Wealthy ‘boomers’ fuel demand
As the first wave of ‘baby boomers’ approaches 80 years old, the elderly population is poised to rapidly expand, creating a vast and growing addressable market for senior housing solutions.7
The number of US adults aged 80 and over is projected to expand by 5% a year to almost 20mn by 2030 (see chart above).8 Their share of the total US population is due to correspondingly grow from 3.8% to 5.4% by 2030.
This demographic shift is accompanied by spending power: the baby boomer generation holds more than half (52%) of US household wealth.9 The purchasing power of asset-owning older people has risen in line with asset values since the financial crisis, making supported housing options financially viable for more of that generation. According to an industry estimate, the affordability of senior housing has improved almost four-fold since 2008.10
Supply-demand dynamics support incumbents
Despite strong demand dynamics, supply growth has slowed. The rate at which US senior housing stock is expanding has more than halved over the past five years, driven by a decline in new development.11
This trend shows no sign of reversing in the context of elevated construction and financing costs: the number of new construction starts in 2024 was two-thirds lower than in 2019.12
Source: Welltower, February 2025. Analysis based on data from NIC MAP Vision.
Subhead: US senior housing construction starts by quarter, 12-month railing period (thousand units)
Overview: This bar chart shows the number of US senior housing units that commenced construction each quarter from Q4 2018 to Q4 2024.
Overall, this chart illustrates how the number of new construction starts has fallen sharply, by roughly two-thirds over the period.
We believe incumbents including Welltower and Ventas are well-positioned to benefit from this supply-demand imbalance, which is driving high and rising occupancy rates within the sector. Welltower reported 89% occupancy across its portfolio in Q4 2024.13
Effective market segmentation is an important part of these companies’ strategies, with differentiation by price and service. Some communities can offer a continuum of care, from independent to assisted living, enabling longer-term stays that are less disruptive for residents.
As a labour-intensive industry, we note the short-term risk of wage cost inflation that could follow tighter immigration restrictions in the US, potentially crimping margins. Irrespective, the long-term structural drivers of demand for senior housing remain intact and should be strengthened further by demographic trends. The industry expects rents to increase by between 3% and 7% across most segments of the US market this year.14
We believe supply-demand dynamics support opportunities for incumbents who can leverage their scale and operator relationships to deliver affordable housing solutions to ageing baby boomers.
1 US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2025: Obesity Data and Statistics
2 US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2024: National Diabetes Statistics Report
3 Alzheimer’s Association, 2024: Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures
4 McKinsey, February 2025: Caregivers are burning out
5 Malani, P.N., et al., December 2024: Loneliness and Social Isolation Among US Older Adults. JAMA
6 NORC at the University of Chicago, 2024: An Analysis of Longevity Among Senior Housing Residents
7 The ‘baby boomer’ generation is generally defined as those born between 1946 and 1964
8 US Census Bureau, 2020: Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060
9 Federal Reserve, December 2024: Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989
10 Welltower, February 2025. Analysis based on data from the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
11 Welltower, February 2025. Analysis based on data from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care
12 Welltower, February 2025. Analysis based on data from NIC MAP Vision
13 Welltower, February 2025
14 CBRE, November 2024: U.S. Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey H2 2024
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